参考文献：
Hribar,P.andYang,H.(),CEOOverconfidenceandManagementForecasting.ContemporaryAccountingResearch,33:–.
CEO过度自信与管理层预测
论文检验了过度自信是如何影响管理层预测的性质的。论文采用过度自信的“过度乐观”和“过度标准化”两个维度来进行分析预测，检验了3个问题：第一，过度自信是否会增加发布预测的可能性？第二，过度自信是否会增加管理层预测的乐观程度？第三，过度自信是否会增加预测的精确度？我们采用主管调查和媒体报道两个方面的内容来测量个人的过度自信水平，结果发现以上3个问题都得到支持。
过度自信、行为偏差、管理层预测、自愿披露
CEOOverconfidenceandManagementForecasting
PaulHribar,HollyYang
Abstract
Thispaperexamineshowoverconfidenceaffectsthepropertiesofmanagementforecasts.Usingboththe‘over-optimism’and‘miscalibration’dimensionsofoverconfidencetogenerateourpredictions,weexaminethreeresearchquestions.First,weexaminewhetheroverconfidenceincreasesthelikelihoodofissuingaforecast.Second,weexaminewhetheroverconfidenceincreasestheamountofoptimisminmanagementforecasts.Third,weexaminewhetheroverconfidenceincreasestheprecisionoftheforecast.Usingbothoptions-andpress-basedmeasurestoproxyforindividualoverconfidencewefindsupportforallthreeresearchquestions.
Keywords
overconfidence,behaviorbiases,managementforecasts,voluntarydisclosure
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